NFL convention championship Props that Pop – Overs rule the weekend
Welcome into the convention championship spherical version of Props that Pop. Liz Loza carried us final week, going 2-1 together with her bets. Thank goodness she was right here as a result of I had a dreadful weekend.
Not solely did my props go 0-3, however my Detroit Lions misplaced to the Washington Commanders final week in our first recreation of the playoffs. It was gut-wrenching. After going 15-2 within the common season, the Lions’ greatest mark of their historical past, we misplaced in our first and solely playoff recreation. At house, no much less.
After which, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was employed as the brand new head coach for the Chicago Bears. A group throughout the division! I do not wish to face his offense twice a 12 months. Do not get me mistaken although, I am thrilled for him. There aren’t many head teaching positions out there within the NFL, so when your window is open and also you’re blossoming as a coach, you have to take what’s out there. Fortunately for him, and unluckily for Lions followers, that job is with a younger and gifted Chicago squad. However good luck to Ben in his new function. I want him nothing however success in 15 of his 17 video games subsequent season.
So, that made for a fairly tough weekend. Fortunately, this weekend is a clean slate, and we’re bringing winners to the desk. So with out additional adieu, right here is the championship version of playoff Props that Pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the most recent odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
0:36
Why Tyler Fulghum likes the over within the Payments-Chiefs matchup
Tyler Fulghum is anticipating a “shootout” within the AFC title recreation between the Payments and Chiefs and encourages bettors to take the over.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 INTs (-105)
Loza: It took a minute for the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs offense to spherical into kind, however Mahomes has performed just about mistake-free since about midseason. 9 of his 11 interceptions occurred within the first two months of the 2024 marketing campaign. He hasn’t thrown a decide since Week 11 when he recorded two INTs — in opposition to the Buffalo Payments.
Buffalo has excelled at producing takeaways, logging 16 within the common season (tied for fifth most). Bobby Babich’s crew struggled to strain Lamar Jackson within the second half of final week’s recreation, however the Payments nonetheless picked off considered one of his passes, which is spectacular contemplating Jackson registered simply 4 INTs (the second fewest) within the common season. In a good, back-and-forth matchup anticipated to showcase a stable variety of aerial makes an attempt (the Over/Underneath on Mahomes’ passing makes an attempt is 36.5), the possibility of a decide, particularly given the chances, is well worth the wager.
Josh Allen longest rush OVER 12.5 yards (-130)
Loza: It is no secret that Steve Spagnuolo likes to dial up a blitz. That always creates an environment wherein QBs look to flee and lengthen. Kansas Metropolis’s protection allowed the fifth-most dashing makes an attempt (88) to QBs and gave up the seventh-most dashing yards (434) this season. Although the Chiefs allowed the Fifteenth-fewest rushes over 13 yards (seven), the longest of these was delivered courtesy of … Josh Allen (a 26-yard dashing TD).
Allen has posted eight rushes of 15 yards or extra this season and 77 in his profession, together with the postseason. Over 10% of these runs (8 of 77) have come in opposition to the Chiefs. Bettors want him to tear off solely 13 yards to pay out on the above prop. That appears possible, particularly when noting he averaged over 31 dashing yards per recreation throughout the common season. Here is to a classic Allen efficiency and a win on the over!
Jayden Daniels OVER 286.5 passing + dashing yards (-115)
Dopp: Daniels has been unbelievable this season on so many ranges. Daniels rushed for 891 yards, probably the most yards by a rookie QB and the ninth most by a QB in NFL historical past. As if that wasn’t sufficient, Daniels accomplished 69% of his passes and threw solely 9 interceptions. The Washington Commanders rookie additionally threw for over 3,500 yards and 25 passing TDs whereas unlocking Terry McLaurin.
Daniels has hit this line in every of his previous 5 full video games performed. (He performed solely a handful of snaps in a meaningless Week 18 recreation, which was anticipated, so I am not counting it towards this stat.) He has had a minimum of 9 carries in 5 of his previous six video games, and I am anticipating him to be closely concerned within the run recreation once more.
Daniels just lately performed the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, ending with 258 passing yards and 81 dashing yards to provide him 339 passing + dashing yards. I am unsure the Commanders win Sunday, however I do know Daniels will use all of his abilities to push his group down the sphere. That is why I am taking the over right here.
Working again props
Austin Ekeler OVER 46.5 dashing + receiving yards (-115)
Dopp: If Washington goes to win this weekend, one of many guys it will need is Ekeler. The operating again has been a constant passing-game possibility for Daniels this 12 months, logging two or extra catches in 13 of his 14 video games this season (together with playoffs) and reaching a minimum of 20 receiving yards in eight of these. Together with the primary two weeks of the playoffs, Ekeler is averaging 62.4 scrimmage yards per recreation, which is properly north of the road we’re attempting to hit.
I do know Philadelphia has been good in opposition to opposing operating backs, particularly conserving them out of the top zone. However I feel the Eagles dominate in opposition to the Commanders, placing Washington in an analogous scenario it put the Lions in final week. And that will imply Ekeler ought to have his quantity known as on quite a lot of events to assist maintain drives alive. I might play this as much as 49.5 dashing + receiving yards, however I would not go over the 50-yard mark.
Vast receiver props
0:34
Why Fulghum is taking the Commanders to cowl vs. the Eagles
Tyler Fulghum is not underestimating the Commanders this week and expects them to cowl the factors unfold vs. the Eagles.
A.J. Brown OVER 69.5 receiving yards (+105)
Loza: Brown hasn’t gone over 36 receiving yards for 3 straight contests. However I am shopping for the over in a recreation with large stakes (and a projected level complete of 47.5). Jalen Hurts tried to get the ball to his No. 1 wideout versus the Los Angeles Rams, concentrating on Brown a team-high seven occasions final week. The 27-year-old receiver mentioned the snow threw off his vibe, limiting him to a 2-14-0 stat line. Whether or not that is true, the situations in Philly are anticipated to be flake-free Sunday.
The protection situations additionally determine to be pleasant, as Marshon Lattimore has struggled since coming back from a hamstring problem. Lattimore has allowed 5 receptions on seven targets for 73 yards and a landing (together with a passer score of 144.6) throughout Washington’s postseason run. Brown ought to stay a spotlight for Philly’s offense, particularly with the Commanders’ weak secondary. He additionally cleared the above line the final time he confronted Washington in Week 16. This tilt portends a lot “Inside Excellence” and a hearty bounce-back for Brown.
Hollywood Brown OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-105)
Dopp: Final week was a serious blow to bettors’ belief in Brown after he delivered a two-target, zero-reception efficiency within the divisional spherical in opposition to the Houston Texans. However I am extra optimistic heading into this week due to that. Brown’s goose egg final week lowered the road for bettors this week, and I am not complaining about that. Secondly, I do not suppose he will get shut out two weeks in a row. It may not really feel prefer it, however he is turning into a much bigger a part of the offense, going from 27% of the snaps in Week 16 to 43% of the snaps in Week 17 to 64% of the snaps final week. He is enjoying greater than ever and already topped this line twice, in Weeks 16 and 17.
I am not letting final week scare me away. I feel this line ought to be nearer to 44.5 or 49.5, so I will gladly take it at 39.5. I do know Mahomes likes to unfold it round, which is why I am concentrating on one of many decrease receiving traces as a substitute of taking Travis Kelce or Xavier Worthy. Buffalo allowed QBs to finish over 70% of their passes this 12 months, the very best mark within the NFL. And if there’s one factor Mahomes is aware of tips on how to do, it is flop like an NBA participant in an effort to draw a flag it is use his arm to search out open guys. I am on the over.
