A Potential Western Convention Playoff Preview?
At numerous factors within the 2024-2025 season, each the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves have seemed like severe threats within the Western Convention. However when matching up towards each other, regardless of a opposite outcome earlier this month, one staff holds a big statistical edge.
The Rockets and Timberwolves matchup tonight. Right here is who holds the benefit.
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Finest Bets
I’m an enormous fan of the “numbers by no means lie” idea. Not as a result of each quantity tells the reality however as a result of each quantity I present to you’ll assist my argument and, thus, is truthful so far as I’m involved.
I child, in fact, however numbers may be bent in any route you need them, and on this occasion, I’m taking the regression strategy.
These two groups met earlier this month, and Minnesota received by 13 factors at residence. Boxscore watchers will see that outcome and perhaps marvel about this unfold, however if you happen to tune into PFSN content material, you’re smarter than that.
They received fortunate.
OK, so “fortunate” could be a bit dramatic, however I’m under no circumstances studying into that outcome. Houston received three of 4 quarters in that sport. Houston had extra assists and fewer turnovers. Houston tried extra free throws. They merely fell aside for a seven-minute run (outscored 27-11), and it price them a sport that was their eighth in eight cities in 13 simply days.
I’m not fearful.
.@jabarismithjr is about to return for tomorrow’s sport towards the Timberwolves! 👏@MemorialHermann | #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/F30CPKgyZK
— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) February 20, 2025
I’m completely wonderful with betting towards the vaunted Mike Conley/Jaylen Clark duo going off for 33 factors on 11-of-17 taking pictures (eight-of-10 on triples) with only one turnover of their 48 minutes of motion. I’m completely wonderful with betting on a profile that has constructed up over 55 video games versus what we noticed in a singular knowledge level two and a half weeks in the past in a fatigued spot.
The Rockets are the third-best protection and high rebounding staff within the NBA, two traits that put them in an ideal place to avenge that loss. The Timberwolves have misplaced 9 of 11 contests this season when being out-rebounded AND being held under their season common in factors per possession, one thing that I absolutely anticipate to come back into play tonight.
It seems that the groin damage that Anthony Edwards nursed on the All-Star Break is nothing, nevertheless it’s a minimum of one thing to concentrate on provided that that is the primary of three video games in 4 days. Additionally they play three back-to-backs over the following two weeks.
I’m not absolutely fading Edwards, however I do assume there’s a option to neatly wager towards him, understanding that an damage flare-up may also help us, however isn’t wanted. He was ultra-aggressive in that latest assembly (25 area purpose makes an attempt and 15 free throw makes an attempt) and whereas he nonetheless managed to dish out six dimes, historical past means that shot quantity like that’s hardly ever accompanied by a excessive help whole for Ant-Man. You already know the place I’m going for this sport (Rockets cowl), so why not absolutely lean into that?
Edwards this season:
- Losses: 4.9 assists per 48 minutes
- Wins: 6.7 assists per 48 minutes
Identical sport parlays are about telling a narrative and with every of Houston’s previous 5 video games being determined by 7+ factors, I’m not towards the thought of a +224 SGP (DraftKings) that has them protecting 6.5 factors and Edwards failing to repeat his six assists.
Choose: Rockets -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
Choose: Anthony Edwards underneath 5.5 assists and underneath 4.5 assists
