2025 NFL draft: Shemar Stewart and manufacturing vs. potential

Among the most confounding, career-challenging choices within the NFL draft come when the attention check crashes head-on into the numbers. When a participant appears NFL-ready in the best way he strikes, however there aren’t sufficient affect performs on the stat sheet to match the off-the-charts measurables.

“I feel you worth upside since you need development, however we do not have a farm system,” Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel stated. “You do not have the luxurious of redshirting them within the Nationwide Soccer League.”

Texas A&M’s Shemar Stewart, the No. 25 prospect on ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s Massive Board, is a part of a deep group of edge rushers on this 2025 draft class, a place on the epicenter of the “potential vs. manufacturing” debate.

He is additionally the highest-rated participant on this yr’s balancing act of marrying future NFL potential with on-field manufacturing. And his analysis could be outlined by the quantity “4.5” — as in, 4.5 whole school sacks and precisely 1.5 in every of his three seasons.

“Generally the stats do not inform the entire story,” Stewart stated on the mix. “It is all concerning the movie. And while you have a look at the movie, you possibly can actually see what is going on on for probably the most half.”

Stewart, together with Mykel Williams (Georgia) and Landon Jackson (Arkansas), are this draft’s prime examples of what has grow to be a yearly conundrum for NFL scouts and entrance workplace executives. We talked to individuals across the league about how decision-makers wrestle with big-time upside vs. a scarcity of manufacturing in Spherical 1 and why the traits are typically too good to cross up — even when it means betting their very own futures on that potential.

THE 21-YEAR-OLD STEWART is a just-how-you-draw-it-up prospect. He measured 6-foot-5 and weighed 267 kilos at the mix. He ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.59 seconds, higher than three working backs, 5 extensive receivers and all 14 tight ends in attendance who ran. He additionally had a 40-inch vertical soar (tied for fourth highest amongst all gamers on the mix) and a broad soar of 10-foot-11 (tied for seventh amongst all gamers).

“[That type of performance] will at all times get your consideration,” a scout for an AFC crew stated. “There aren’t many individuals on the planet who can do this.”

It raises the query of how a participant so massive, sturdy, fast and quick had solely 4.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss over 37 school video games. To place that into perspective, Penn State’s Abdul Carter — who many within the league consider is the most effective participant obtainable on this class — had 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for loss in 16 video games final season. However Stewart has tantalizing analytical metrics that rope scouts proper again in. Regardless of his meager manufacturing, his common time to first stress final season was 2.43 seconds, the most effective mark within the FBS (Carter clocked in at 2.46 seconds).

“As a coach, in the event you suppose you are price a s— in any respect, you are going to watch a man with all of the traits and say, ‘I can get [the sacks] out of him, I can get him to play,'” a longtime former NFL line of defense coach stated. “These are the pound-the-table guys. You do not need plateau gamers, guys who’re nearly as good as they will be. You need potential.”

Stewart stated he has been requested by coaches, scouts and personnel executives about his statistical profile. He pointed to the Aggies’ depth and opposing quarterbacks getting a rid of the ball shortly to keep away from stress from the Texas A&M entrance. The Aggies’ protection was twenty second within the FBS in stress price (40.3%) regardless of one of many lowest blitz charges (19.3%, which ranked a hundred and fifteenth).

“I wasn’t a sack-chasing warrior,” Stewart stated. “I simply needed to grow to be the most effective participant for my crew. And typically the stats do not present that. Generally, I’ve to play useless to rights, and typically I simply could not end or simply could not get there in time.”

Stewart is not alone in fielding these questions. Georgia’s Williams, who’s ranked No. 22 total by Kiper, had 14 sacks in three seasons for the Bulldogs, together with solely 5 in 2024. Williams instructed groups in latest weeks he was “lower than 60%” at occasions final season due to an ankle harm he suffered in Week 1.

Arkansas’ Jackson additionally suits the invoice. He had 16 sacks in three seasons, however the 6-foot-6, 264-pounder was so dominant in mix exercises that a number of scouts on totally different groups stated they wanted to rewatch his sport tape. They famous that Jackson was an earnest edge setter in run protection, however they did not see the explosiveness he confirmed in Indianapolis within the cross rush.

Williams stated on the mix that some in contrast him to a different Georgia edge rusher who was a statistical curiosity — Travon Walker, the No. 1 decide of the 2022 draft. Walker was one of many draft’s most outstanding potential-vs.-production debates of the previous decade.

“Travon was particular due to how massive he was and how briskly he might transfer,” Williams stated. “He is very versatile, like myself. In order that’s the place I feel the comparisons come from, however that is what made him particular. What he might do together with his measurement.”

WALKER DIDN’T CHECK all of the packing containers because the 2022 draft approached. He had 9.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss mixed in three school seasons. However the 6-foot-5, 272-pound edge rusher was intriguing due to the uncommon, jaw-dropping moments he produced, even when they did not at all times lead to a sort out or sack.

Main as much as that draft, scouts repeatedly cited Walker’s rundown of Alabama extensive receiver Agiye Corridor 24 yards downfield within the 2021 season’s nationwide championship sport for instance of his distinctive ability set. He then turned in a mix day for the ages. Walker ran the 40-yard sprint in 4.51 seconds, the most effective mark for all defensive linemen and second greatest amongst edge rushers. His vertical leap of 35½ inches was higher than all however two defensive linemen.

“I preferred him,” an AFC scout stated. “However you end up answering for, ‘How’d he solely have one sack as a [sophomore]? How can a man that gifted have [seven] sacks in his final two years?'”

Coaches, scouts and basic managers insist sacks aren’t the end-all-be-all when trying to find cross rushers. However gamers whose abilities are clear with out the easy-to-digest outcomes vex even the most effective expertise evaluators.

“In a gathering you are at all times going to say, ‘Let’s look past these numbers and get extra information,’ or ‘Let’s dive into this extra, have a look at the scheme, how he was coached, what he was requested to do, the make-up, all of it,'” stated an NFC basic supervisor. “The fellows with each traits and numbers, these are the simple calls. … A participant with all of the traits and no touchdowns, interceptions or sacks or no matter, these are powerful ‘Whys?'”

Walker ended up being the No. 1 decide, with the Jaguars selecting him over Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, who was considered the safer choice resulting from his 14 sacks in 2021. Hutchinson was chosen No. 2 total by the Lions. The early outcomes skewed to Hutchinson. Walker moved from line of defense to exterior linebacker as a rookie, ending with solely 3.5 sacks over 788 snaps. In the meantime, Hutchinson had 9.5 sacks and completed second within the Defensive Rookie of the Yr voting. However Walker rewarded Jacksonville’s endurance with 10 sacks in 2023 and 10.5 final season.

“It is at all times, while you’re on the clock, a alternative about if, and when, you are taking traits and what you suppose the participant has inside to be what you suppose he ought to be,” the NFC basic supervisor stated.

SOMETIMES IT DOESN’T work. For each Walker and Odafe Oweh — a 2021 first-round draft decide who had zero sacks in his remaining school season however had 10 for the Ravens in 2024 — there is a Vernon Gholston, whose elite traits did not translate after being drafted by the Jets with the sixth decide in 2008.

However elite cross rushers are among the many quickest to adapt to the NFL, which is why some evaluators lean in a bit extra on potential.

“You simply suppose, a tweak right here together with his arms, repair his stance, add some energy, they will adapt quick,” the previous line of defense coach stated. “You need these guys that get to the quarterback. … If they have the traits, you possibly can take an opportunity. You may get it proper greater than another positions.”

Stewart hopes evaluators have a look at the entire image and see all he believes he delivered to the Aggies’ protection — and would deliver to his new NFL house.

“[Box score] manufacturing is a bit overrated,” he stated.