2026 NFL quarterback predictions: 12 groups with questions

It is a fairly necessary season for a lot of NFL quarterbacks and their respective groups. Irrespective of how the 2025 offseason or preseason has gone, chunk of the league is coping with no less than some stage of short- and/or long-term uncertainty at crucial place.

Yearly at the moment, we like to have a look past the upcoming season and into the subsequent offseason, projecting which groups would possibly or won’t nonetheless have QB questions. Then we predict what they may be in place to do about these questions. We attempt to lock in on ones with legit questions on how this season might shake out … and we attempt to avoid ones the place the contract scenario provides no less than some certainty.

For instance, this would possibly really feel like an necessary yr for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, till you notice he has $37 million totally assured in 2026 and $29 million totally assured in 2027. You possibly can say it is a very important yr for Dak Prescott in Dallas, however he has $40 million assured for 2026, and restructures have pushed the lifeless cash penalty for slicing him to inconceivable ranges. And the Bears, Vikings and Falcons are nonetheless too early within the course of to be giving up on the blokes they picked within the first spherical final yr.

On the flip aspect, the Ravens probably need to do one thing with Lamar Jackson‘s contract quickly, since his cap quantity for 2026 jumps to $74.5 million. Jackson’s final negotiation was contentious, so it is doable there might be some uncertainty round this example within the subsequent yr or so. However apart from the rising cap hit (which might be addressed by extending him), there is no motive to suppose the Ravens need to transfer on anytime quickly. So Baltimore did not make the minimize right here, both.

We in the end keyed on 12 conditions the place the QB image might look so much completely different in 2026 and laid out two choices for every entrance workplace — the most definitely end result and a protracted shot chance. Let’s begin with Arizona.

Soar to a group:
ARI | CAR | CLE | IND | LV | LAR
NO | NYG | NYJ | PIT | SEA | TB

Present starter: Kyler Murray
Signed by means of: 2027, plus a group possibility for 2028

Murray simply turned 28 a few weeks in the past. He was wholesome all of final season and is surrounded with ability place gamers who put him ready to succeed. And his 66.6 QBR ranked within the prime 10 final season. If there is a criticism of Murray, it is that he hasn’t been fairly the franchise changer he was drafted to be because the No. 1 choose in 2019.

Actually, it is not too late to vary that, and if the Cardinals have a giant season, Murray ought to be all set going into 2026. His contract consists of about $40 million in 2026 wage and bonuses which are already totally assured. However there aren’t any ensures after 2026, and if Murray struggles with well being and/or efficiency, it is not out of the query that the Cardinals might flip their consideration to the long run. They’ll minimize Murray after 2026 with minimal lifeless cash impression. If issues obtained unhealthy sufficient earlier than then, slicing him subsequent offseason would price them about $58 million — so much, but additionally a manageable quantity.

Almost certainly end result: The Cardinals have a ok season, possibly even contend for or snag a playoff spot, and keep the course with Murray by means of no less than 2026. If Murray performs properly sufficient, he might be in place to ask for an extension that provides him extra safety than his present deal.

Lengthy shot end result: Arizona’s season fully collapses, individuals in cost get fired, and a brand new regime is available in and decides the perfect factor for the franchise is to maneuver on at QB within the 2026 draft. Murray turns into a candidate to be launched or traded, whereas one of many prime QB prospects for 2026 lands in Arizona in Spherical 1.

Present starter: Bryce Younger
Signed by means of: 2026, plus a group possibility for 2027

Younger had a tough rookie season and a tough begin to his sophomore season, getting benched for Andy Dalton early in 2024 and searching as if he would possibly develop into an all-time draft bust after being the primary choose within the 2023 draft. However he obtained the beginning job again when Dalton was injured in a automobile accident, and he completed the season sturdy below the tutelage of first-year head coach Dave Canales.

Now, hopes are excessive that Younger can proceed final season’s progress and emerge as Carolina’s franchise quarterback. His contract is totally assured and pays him a complete of about $10.2 million over the subsequent two years. Subsequent Could, the Panthers must resolve whether or not to choose up his fifth-year possibility for 2027, which is prone to price someplace within the $25 million vary.

It is a vital yr for Younger. If he flops and the Panthers do not choose up the choice, they’re going to most likely be trying to transfer on from him as early as subsequent offseason. If he performs properly and so they do choose up the choice, then he has totally assured cash in 2027 and doubtless is not going anyplace.

Almost certainly end result: Younger builds on the success he had towards the top of the 2024 season, the bettering group round him on offense begins to jell, the Panthers choose up the choice to offer them extra time to resolve and Carolina continues to develop Younger as its QB of the long run.

Lengthy shot end result: The Panthers are the shock group of the 2025 season. Younger performs properly sufficient to make his first Professional Bowl, and Carolina makes the playoffs. On this situation, not solely are the Panthers selecting up the choice — they’re speaking extension with Younger.

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Present starter: Joe Flacco
Signed by means of: 2025

Whoa, boy. That is, certainly, the wildest, most unpredictable quarterback scenario within the NFL proper now and fairly probably in league historical past.

Flacco will begin Week 1 for the Browns. He is 40 years outdated and helped them get to the playoffs when he got here out of what seemed to be retirement late within the 2023 season. He emerged from a four-man coaching camp QB competitors this yr largely as a result of everybody else missed time due to damage.

Kenny Pickett, the previous Steelers first-rounder for whom the Browns traded again in March, might need had a shot to beat out Flacco however could not get on the sector sufficient after a hamstring damage in July. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel within the third spherical and Shedeur Sanders within the fifth spherical of this yr’s draft, however each struggled to seek out first-team reps alongside Flacco and Pickett. By the point Pickett’s camp damage might have opened the door, Gabriel and Sanders have been coping with well being problems with their very own.

Any of these three might be the backup to Flacco in Week 1 (as might Tyler Huntley, if none of these three is prepared), and all three might additionally begin sooner or later this season if Flacco and/or the group battle. But in addition do not forget that Deshaun Watson continues to be signed for 2 extra years at a completely assured $46 million per yr. Watson would not sound prone to play this season as he recovers from an Achilles damage, however you by no means know.

So to recap, that is …

• A 40-year-old former first-round choose and Tremendous Bowl MVP

• One other former first-round choose who’s going into his fourth yr within the league and is already on his third group

• An undersized left-handed third-round rookie who threw an unsightly pick-six in final weekend’s preseason begin

• A fifth-round rookie who’s Deion Sanders’ son and thru no actual fault of his personal has develop into one of the talked-about gamers in all the league

• The all-time QB contract albatross nonetheless hanging over all of it

That is going to be a wild story to observe all season.

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Almost certainly end result: Who is aware of?? However there is a actually sturdy likelihood that Cleveland comes out of 2025 with extra questions than solutions about all of those guys and makes use of a 2026 first-round choose to attempt to get its quarterback scenario proper as soon as and for all. Bear in mind: The Browns even have the Jaguars’ first-round choose subsequent yr, giving them the juice to maneuver up for the suitable QB if desired.

Lengthy shot end result: It seems Sanders ought to have been a first- or second-round choose all alongside. He advances shortly in follow within the early months of the season and finishes because the Browns’ starter. Cleveland feels ok about him that it makes use of these two first-round picks to construct round him relatively than change him.

Present starter: Daniel Jones
Signed by means of: 2025

The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson Sr. fourth in 2023. He has performed in simply 15 of Indy’s 34 video games since then, lacking time for accidents and efficiency. Final season, he accomplished 47.7% of his passes and threw eight landing passes to 12 interceptions. So the Colts signed Jones to compete with Richardson for the beginning job this summer season. Effectively, the Colts introduced Tuesday that Jones has received the beginning job, and coach Shane Steichen insisted it was not only for Week 1 however relatively for the entire season. We’ll see.

Jones has been the extra constant possibility by means of camp, however Richardson clearly provides the next ceiling resulting from his nice dimension, pace and arm power. The issue for the Colts is Richardson hasn’t stayed wholesome sufficient for them to see whether or not he can attain his potential. Some seats are getting scorching on the market in Indy, and it might be tempting to maintain rolling with Jones if he provides the Colts the perfect likelihood to win video games straight away. However the flip aspect is the group made a heavy funding in Richardson and is in a foul spot long run if that choose would not pan out. Plus, Jones hasn’t precisely been the healthiest QB within the league, so there is no assure Indianapolis will not have to show to Richardson sooner or later.

Almost certainly end result: Every of those guys begins no less than six video games for the Colts in 2025. Perhaps another person begins one, too. The Colts get to the top of the season nonetheless unsure about Richardson and face a troublesome resolution on his fifth-year possibility subsequent Could. However Jones strikes on, and Indy appears to the draft or free company for its subsequent reply. It is robust to forecast the trail, since a poor season by the Colts might result in modifications among the many decision-makers in addition to the quarterbacks. However the group would want a long-term resolution, so Indy would probably favor to make use of the draft to discover a new QB. If the Colts wanted a veteran placeholder, maybe they may go for somebody like Kirk Cousins — assuming the Falcons let him go this time.

Lengthy shot end result: Jones struggles, opening the door for Richardson to take the job again — and the sunshine goes on. Certain, he is nonetheless susceptible to the occasional brutal mistake, however Richardson makes three or 4 dazzling performs together with his arm and his legs every week that others simply cannot make. The Colts get to subsequent offseason excited to choose up Richardson’s fifth-year possibility and maintain working with him now that he has proven he can keep wholesome and play at a excessive stage within the NFL.

Present starter: Geno Smith
Signed by means of: 2027

Smith’s contract actually would not bind the Raiders to him for greater than this season. He has $18.5 million in assured cash on the books for 2026, however as a result of the Raiders do not prefer to put signing bonuses of their contracts, that is the extent of the lifeless cash hit in the event that they wish to minimize him subsequent offseason. In the event that they maintain him by means of 2026, they’d pay him a complete of $40 million this yr and $26.5 million subsequent yr. There might be no ensures on the books for 2027, which means Vegas might transfer on from him after 2026 with no lifeless cash hit in any respect.

These are all worst-case situations, in fact. Smith is an effective quarterback. He accomplished 70.4% of his passes final season with the Seahawks, throwing 21 landing passes. New Raiders coach Pete Carroll believes in him from their time collectively in Seattle. So Smith might completely play properly and get an extension (or no less than extra money) subsequent offseason.

However he additionally turns 35 in October, and the construction of his contract signifies the Raiders weren’t prepared to commit long run. This looks like a trial season for Smith in Las Vegas. Even when the Raiders discovered a greater possibility in subsequent yr’s draft, holding Smith as a $26.5 million backup would not be inconceivable. It is just about what Atlanta is doing proper now with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr.

Almost certainly end result: Smith performs properly in Chip Kelly’s offense, leaning on rookie working again Ashton Jeanty and second-year tight finish Brock Bowers. The Raiders win extra video games than we’re used to them successful as a result of Carroll is now the coach. They do not make the playoffs, however they hold within the race longer than final season and go into 2026 with good vibes. At age 35, Smith continues to be not touchdown a whopper of a long-term contract, however Las Vegas adjusts his deal to deliver it extra in keeping with the market earlier than going into 2026 as a group on the rise.

Lengthy shot end result: Issues collapse for Smith and the Raiders choose excessive within the draft and choose their quarterback of the long run. Smith sticks round, both to start out till the rookie is prepared or because the backup till one other group needs to commerce for him.

Present starter: Matthew Stafford
Signed by means of: 2026

Stafford’s making $44 million this yr (all assured) after which $40 million in 2026 (none of which is assured). Now, he threw for 3,762 yards and 20 TDs final season. However he has additionally been coping with a again subject in camp, and at 37 years outdated, Stafford has reached the purpose in his profession the place the choice on whether or not to proceed enjoying comes after each season. So it is fully doable that is his last season (although he has indicated no such factor).

The Rams had a troublesome time coming to an settlement with him on this yr’s contract, even entertaining commerce talks earlier than he agreed to his restructured deal in February. In order that they know this association is not eternally. Their first-round commerce with the Falcons on this yr’s draft leaves them with two first-rounders in 2026, in order that they’re positioned to handle the quarterback scenario that method in the event that they so select.

Almost certainly end result: Stafford solutions the bell for Week 1 and has his typical sturdy season. The Rams make the playoffs and win a postseason recreation or two. Heck, possibly they even get to the Tremendous Bowl and current Stafford with the prospect to actually exit in model. The dance repeats itself subsequent offseason as he turns 38 in February, however this time Stafford and the Rams half methods, both as a result of he decides to retire or they resolve it is time to pivot to a different possibility. On this situation, the Rams probably use these two first-round picks to handle the place long run. But when they draft somebody who is not prepared but, it is simple to see them trying towards a reclamation challenge from the Kyle Shanahan tree like Mac Jones or Malik Willis.

Lengthy shot end result: The again stays a problem all season, leaving the Rams to piece issues collectively round Jimmy Garoppolo and Stetson Bennett. This doesn’t go properly. The Rams miss the playoffs, say goodbye to Stafford and use their two first-round picks in a package deal to maneuver as much as choose a quarterback No. 1 total. This quarterback, below Sean McVay’s tutelage, goes on to win three Tremendous Bowls for the franchise.

Present starter: Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough
Signed by means of: Rattler 2027, Shough 2028

The Saints have held a competitors between Rattler, their fifth-round choose from 2024, and Shough, their second-round choose from 2025. As a result of Shough was the fortieth choose with a brand new, offensive-minded coach in place, it has been assumed that he would have the sting. However Rattler had a powerful offseason and might need achieved sufficient to carry Shough off — no less than to start out the season.

As a result of neither QB was a first-round choose, the Saints don’t maintain a fifth-year possibility on both of them. After this yr, Rattler could have two years and about $2.3 million left on his contract, and he will not be extension eligible till after the 2026 season. Shough could have three years and about $5.5 million left on his contract after 2025, and he will not be extension eligible till after the 2027 season. Each gamers might be choices for the Saints for the foreseeable future, assuming New Orleans needs them to be within the combine.

Almost certainly end result: Rattler definitely has a shot to carry off Shough within the brief time period (and even the long run). Stranger issues have occurred. However the truth that the Saints drafted Shough as excessive as they did, just some months after hiring Kellen Moore as their coach, signifies that Shough is prone to get an opportunity to indicate what he can do ultimately. This can be a very robust one to foretell, however the most definitely end result is Shough develops into the starter by the top of the season and opens 2026 with the job.

Lengthy shot end result: The Saints have the worst group within the league, neither QB reveals a lot promise and New Orleans makes use of the primary choose within the 2026 draft to pick out a quarterback. With a mixed $8 million left on their contracts, neither Rattler nor Shough represents any form of impediment if the Saints resolve they wish to go along with a brand new possibility subsequent yr.

Present starter: Russell Wilson
Signed by means of: 2025

Coach Brian Daboll has mentioned repeatedly that Wilson, 36, will open the season because the Giants’ beginning quarterback, although the group traded again into the primary spherical to pick out Jaxson Dart in April’s draft and likewise signed Jameis Winston in March. Dart has carried out properly in two preseason video games to this point, and as Daboll’s handpicked alternative, he is certain to take over because the starter at some level.

The query is whether or not that time comes this season, because it at all times appears to for first-round rookie quarterbacks. In that case, then when? The Giants have a brutal-looking first-half schedule and will simply discover themselves in a scenario much like the one they confronted in 2004, when veteran Kurt Warner began the primary 9 video games earlier than giving technique to a rookie first-round choose named Eli Manning.

Almost certainly end result: The Giants battle, Wilson appears as meh as he has the previous three seasons and Dart takes over because the starter within the first half of the season. The query turns as to if the Giants can win sufficient video games to persuade possession to stay with Daboll and let him proceed to develop Dart in 2026. I say he will get the prospect.

Lengthy shot end result: Wilson finds the fountain of youth. Malik Nabers emerges as a top-three vast receiver within the league. Andrew Thomas stays wholesome at left sort out. The Giants’ go rush fuels one of many league’s shock prime defenses. And the Giants pull a couple of upsets early to remain in rivalry all season. Wilson has somewhat nagging damage that results in Winston beginning two video games someplace alongside the best way, however Dart rides the bench all season whereas the vets maintain the group within the playoff hunt. Dart will get his likelihood to start out in 2026.

Present starter: Justin Fields
Signed by means of: 2026

Fields obtained $30 million in ensures within the contract he signed this offseason — $20 million this yr and $10 million in 2026. Veteran Tyrod Taylor is the backup, and there is no younger excessive draft choose on the roster pushing to play anytime quickly, so Fields probably will get the season to indicate what he can do.

Fields continues to be solely 26 and on his third group, so there is definitely an opportunity he blossoms as a passer whereas remaining one of the productive runners within the NFL on the QB place (19 dashing TDs over 50 video games). The teaching employees, together with head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, is new, and there might be rising pains throughout, so it is honest to think about the Jets keep affected person with Fields even when he struggles early. If the Jets resolve to look elsewhere for a QB resolution subsequent offseason, the $10 million assured in 2026 will not forestall them from doing so.

Almost certainly end result: As he has all through his profession, Fields has his ups and downs, flashing the expertise that made him the eleventh choose within the 2021 draft. However he continues to battle with consistency, particularly as a passer. The Jets win six or seven video games and do not actually issue into the playoff race. They maintain Fields for 2026 … however usher in somebody who represents stronger competitors than Taylor. Perhaps this finally ends up being Kenny Pickett’s subsequent cease. These first-round picks are inclined to get numerous rope on this league.

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Lengthy shot end result: Fields makes a significant leap as a passer, and his legs assist the Jets subject one of the efficient total run video games within the NFL. The Jets win 10 or 11 video games and declare an AFC wild-card spot, and so they reward Fields with a contract extension subsequent offseason.

Present starter: Aaron Rodgers
Signed by means of: 2025

Rodgers will flip 42 in December. He managed to play all 17 video games for the Jets final season, however he was statistically among the many worst beginning quarterbacks within the league. He missed mainly all the 2023 season after tearing his left Achilles early within the first recreation, and albeit, he wasn’t superb in his last yr with the Packers in 2022 (41.3 QBR, twenty sixth within the NFL that yr).

The Steelers maintain managing to squeak into the playoffs but additionally maintain dropping within the first spherical. They’re hoping Rodgers can assist them buck that development, however once more, he will be 42 by the point the playoffs begin — and there are 17 quarterbacks who’ve received NFL playoff video games since Rodgers final received one.

Rodgers has come out and mentioned that is prone to be his final season within the NFL. The query is whether or not he could make it all over it. The Steelers have a younger offensive line that also has some inquiries to reply, a skinny vast receiver group past DK Metcalf and a run recreation that would depend on rookie working again Kaleb Johnson. There actually is not a quarterback on the roster who will push Rodgers for taking part in time even when he struggles, so there are official questions on the place coach Mike Tomlin would flip if Rodgers simply would not have it anymore or will get injured.

Almost certainly end result: Rodgers has one more poor-to-mediocre season, however the Steelers’ protection retains them in video games. They run it sufficient to steal a couple of low-scoring matchups, end 9-8 and contend for the No. 7 seed within the AFC playoff subject. Then Rodgers retires on the finish of the season, and the Steelers take a look at subsequent yr’s draft class for the long-term QB they actually need.

Lengthy shot end result: Rodgers has another good season left in him, and it is this one. He and Metcalf type a potent connection. The road jells in entrance of him. Johnson, together with fellow working backs Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, energy the offense round Rodgers. And the protection is its typical stifling self. The Steelers win the AFC North and at last break their playoff drought, advancing to the Tremendous Bowl, the place Rodgers has an opportunity for a storybook ending to his profession — and retires after the season.

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Present starter: Sam Darnold
Signed by means of: 2027

Darnold signed a three-year contract with the Seahawks this offseason after throwing 35 landing passes and main Minnesota to a 14-3 file in 2024. However a more in-depth look reveals that Seattle is not actually dedicated to him past 2025.

He obtained $37.5 million in assured cash, and all of that comes this season. He is scheduled to make $27.5 million in 2026. None of that 2026 cash is assured proper now, however $17.5 million of it turns into assured if he is nonetheless on the roster 5 days after the Tremendous Bowl. So Seattle must resolve fairly early whether or not they need him again in 2026. If he is nonetheless there in 2027, he’d be owed $35.5 million. However let’s be sincere: If he is nonetheless there in 2027, the Seahawks are most likely extending him.

Darnold turned 28 in June, so the query is whether or not final season represented a turning level in his profession or whether or not it was a product of the Vikings’ good QB infrastructure. Seattle, which went into the offseason anticipating to increase Geno Smith and needed to pivot as soon as it came upon Smith most well-liked to be elsewhere, has constructed the contract in a method that permits flexibility if Darnold turns again right into a pumpkin.

Almost certainly end result: Seattle depends on its protection and run recreation to contend for the playoffs in Mike Macdonald’s second season because the coach. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak builds on the progress Darnold made with Kevin O’Connell final yr, the offensive line scenario is healthier and the Seahawks win extra video games than they lose. Darnold has a do-no-harm yr that convinces Seattle to deliver him again in 2026.

Lengthy shot end result: Darnold takes one other leap, really bettering on his 2024 success and delivering on the promise that made him the No. 3 choose in 2018 with the Jets. As draft classmate Baker Mayfield has in Tampa Bay, Darnold finds his place in Seattle and leads the Seahawks to the playoffs. Subsequent offseason, they tear up the contract and provides him a brand new, a lot bigger one.

Present starter: Baker Mayfield
Signed by means of: 2026

Mayfield signed with the Bucs forward of the 2023 season on a low-cost, one-year prove-it deal after enjoying for 3 completely different groups over the earlier two seasons. Taking the spot of the retired Tom Brady, Mayfield stored the practice on the tracks and led the Buccaneers to a division title that season. He obtained a brand new contract and a brand new offensive coordinator in 2024, after which led the Bucs to a fourth straight division title. His 41 landing passes tied for the second most within the NFL behind Joe Burrow, and he was third in completion share at 71.4%.

A number of weeks in the past, the Buccaneers adjusted Mayfield’s contract to ensure him $30 million for the 2026 season, which signifies a powerful dedication to him. An extended and extra substantial extension for Mayfield just isn’t out of the query and will come throughout this season or subsequent offseason.

Truthfully, I am beginning to marvel why I am even mentioning Mayfield and the Buccaneers right here …

Almost certainly end result: The Buccaneers have among the best groups within the NFC, make the playoffs once more and make a run on the Tremendous Bowl with the perfect roster they’ve had since Brady’s 2020 season. Mayfield will get a full-size extension subsequent offseason and says he appears ahead to ending his profession in Tampa Bay.

Lengthy shot end result: The Bucs miss the playoffs and are one of the disappointing groups within the NFL. They find yourself with a excessive sufficient draft choose to make them rethink their dedication to Mayfield.