Evaluating shock tendencies for 32 NFL groups: Actual or not?

We’re two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, which suggests narratives are starting to take maintain — prematurely. The NFL’s 10 remaining 2-0 groups can’t all be Tremendous Bowl-bound. (Historical past confirms some in that group will not attain the playoffs.) The group of 0-2 groups stands 11 deep coming into Week 3, however these groups should not all hopeless. What all 32 groups have in frequent is a have to both reverse an early development that stands in the best way of progress, or to proceed one that may assist them attain their vacation spot. ESPN’s 32 group reporters recognized such a development for his or her groups, additionally sizing up whether or not that development is more likely to proceed over the following 15 video games (and maybe past).

Bounce to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

AFC EAST

The early shock: The Payments lead the league in speeding makes an attempt.

The decision: Actual to an extent. The offense underneath coordinator Joe Brady has put an emphasis on a productive run sport to assist quarterback Josh Allen. That may proceed because the season progresses, particularly behind a robust offensive line that has returned the identical beginning 5 from final 12 months and with James Prepare dinner beginning the season off on a robust be aware. It additionally helps if the Payments can construct leads early in video games, like of their Week 2 win over the Jets. With Allen and the passing potential, staying first in makes an attempt appears unlikely, however emphasizing the operating sport will proceed. — Alaina Getzenberg

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The early shock: The Dolphins rank twenty ninth within the NFL in speeding yards per sport.

The decision: Actual. Miami had points operating the ball in 2024 as properly, ending twenty first in speeding yards. The Dolphins tried to deal with the problem by including two new offensive guards and drafting energy again Ollie Gordon II, however they’ve already needed to substitute the complete proper facet of their offensive line due to accidents, and Gordon has not been a constant a part of the sport plan by means of two weeks. Starter De’Von Achane has picked up the place he left off final season, when he led NFL operating backs in catches and receiving yards, however there is no signal to this point that Miami’s manufacturing on the bottom is a mirage. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

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The early shock: The Patriots are averaging 10.5 accepted penalties per sport.

The decision: Mirage. New England was referred to as for 12 accepted penalties for 75 yards in its win over the Dolphins, which got here after getting flagged for 9 accepted penalties for 70 yards in a season-opening loss. The Patriots have not mirrored the buttoned-up group one would anticipate with Mike Vrabel on the helm. That should not proceed, notably with false begins, as beginning offensive tackles Will Campbell and Morgan Moses have mixed for six. — Mike Reiss

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The early shock: The Jets rank twenty first in yards allowed, thirtieth in factors allowed.

The decision: Mirage. They are not this unhealthy on protection. They’ve 14 holdovers from a protection that completed fourth in yards allowed, so you understand there’s expertise. They’ve former All-Execs on all three ranges — sort out Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner. A part of the issue is that they’re nonetheless studying a brand new protection, a hybrid system that blends schemes utilized by coach Aaron Glenn and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shoddy tackling is not serving to issues. — Wealthy Cimini

AFC NORTH

The early shock: Mark Andrews‘ lack of productiveness.

The decision: Actual. Andrews has surprisingly not been a part of the Ravens’ sport plan, recording two catches for 7 yards within the first two video games of the season. He was Lamar Jackson‘s favourite goal, however he has a complete of 4 targets regardless of tight finish Isaiah Possible being sidelined with a foot harm. Andrews, 30, simply is not getting many alternatives, operating 38 routes, which ranks twenty fourth amongst tight ends. It is troublesome to suppose Andrews’ goal share will enhance going ahead, particularly with Possible anticipated to return within the subsequent couple of weeks. — Jamison Hensley

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The early shock: The Bengals cannot run the ball.

The decision: Mirage. After Monday’s video games, the Bengals dropped to final within the league in yards per speeding try (2.4). Cincinnati had excessive hopes for operating again Chase Brown coming into the season. Bengals coach Zac Taylor mentioned there have been just a few yards left on the desk in a Week 2 win towards the Jaguars. With Jake Browning now at quarterback rather than Joe Burrow, there’s a likelihood the offense may discover a bit extra steadiness, which may result in elevated speeding effectivity from Brown. — Ben Child

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The early shock: The Browns’ retooled operating sport has produced just one run of 10-plus yards.

The decision: Mirage. The run sport was some extent of emphasis for coach Kevin Stefanski and Cleveland’s offense this offseason, however the Browns are averaging 3.6 yards per carry and producing few explosive performs. The run blocking hasn’t been optimum, however the group’s run block win fee ranks nineteenth. The debut of rookie operating again Quinshon Judkins was additionally a promising signal. Judkins produced the group’s lone explosive run in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens and registered a team-high 61 speeding yards, 36 of which got here after first contact. The Browns’ run sport ought to choose up as Judkins will get extra comfy. — Daniel Oyefusi

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The early shock: The Steelers’ protection ranks twenty ninth in yards and factors allowed per sport.

The decision: Actual. Regardless of fielding the league’s highest-paid protection by practically $25 million, the Steelers’ defensive points have been evident by means of two weeks. Not solely have the Steelers allowed opponents to attain no less than 30 factors previously two weeks, however every group had a 100-yard rusher. The Steelers rank twenty eighth with 149.5 speeding yards allowed per sport. As a result of they can not cease the run, the move rush additionally hasn’t gotten going, and the Steelers are tied for twenty fifth with 1.5 sacks per sport. From prime to backside, the protection is abysmal, and there do not look like any simple fixes on the horizon. — Brooke Pryor

AFC SOUTH

The early shock: C.J. Stroud‘s excessive stress fee.

The decision: Actual. Stroud’s line has the ninth-worst move block win fee (55.6%) in line with ESPN Analytics/NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, and that is not a mirage. It is a full malfunction, from the playcalling to getting move catchers open down the sphere, to the move safety plan, to the Texans’ offensive line struggling to dam and generally Stroud holding the ball. The Texans’ season will flop if they do not get this mounted, particularly with higher AFC opponents coming down the pike in Kansas Metropolis, Baltimore and Buffalo. — DJ Bien-Aime

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The early shock: The Colts have one of many NFL’s most potent offenses.

The decision: Actual. Indy is on the form of offensive tear you may anticipate within the Peyton Manning period, scoring on its first 10 drives of the season and never punting by means of two video games. Nobody is predicting that audacious stage of consistency, however the Colts’ mixture of decisiveness from QB Daniel Jones, savvy playcalling from coach Shane Steichen and a flexible secure of offensive weapons positions them to stay a harmful offense. The Colts rank second in offensive anticipated factors added (23.6) and are tied for first in yards per play (6.5). — Stephen Holder

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The early shock: The Jaguars lead the NFL in speeding.

The decision: Mirage-ish. Liam Coen took Tampa Bay’s run sport from final within the NFL in 2023 to fourth final season, so there was an expectation that he would be capable to considerably enhance the Jaguars’ floor sport in 2025. There is no query the additions alongside the offensive line and the 2 younger operating backs have helped, together with Travis Etienne Jr.’s resurgence. The Jaguars will likely be a greater operating group than they had been final 12 months (101.7 yards per sport), in order that half is actual. Anticipating them to guide the league over the course of the season is the mirage. — Michael DiRocco

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The early shock: The Titans’ third-down distance is the worst within the league.

The decision: Actual. The Titans’ common distance to go on third downs is 9.9 yards, third worst within the league. Tennessee has confronted 31 third downs, with 21 of them being third-and-7 or longer. No group has had extra third-and-long conditions. Many of the issues come from early penalties in drives. The Titans have been penalized 23 instances for 193 yards in two video games. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward has been sacked 11 instances. — Turron Davenport

AFC WEST

The early shock: The Broncos are tied for twenty eighth within the league in turnover margin.

The decision: Actual. If the Broncos actually take into account themselves able to slug it out with the AFC heavyweights — they usually spent a number of time this offseason saying they had been, from coach Sean Payton on down — they can’t dwell on the minus facet of the turnover margin. The Broncos are minus-3 after two video games, and solely Cleveland and Miami are worse (each at minus-4). Quarterback Bo Nix, who went with out an interception 10 instances as a rookie, did throw 4 in his first two begins mixed final 12 months and is tied for many interceptions this season after two weeks with three. Toss in that the Broncos are additionally one in all 10 groups with greater than 120 penalty yards after two video games and that isn’t the profile that is going to reach their very own division, not to mention the AFC playoff race. — Jeff Legwold

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The early shock: Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs in speeding.

The decision: Mirage-ish. The Chiefs definitely hope it is a mirage. However Mahomes has needed to scramble to present the Chiefs a legit choice on the bottom. Though Isiah Pacheco is wholesome, he has struggled along with his restricted touches. Kareem Hunt is usually a short-yardage and third-down again. Nonetheless, it is wild that Mahomes is the second quarterback since 1950 to file double another participant on his group in speeding yards in every of the primary two video games of a season, becoming a member of Cam Newton (2020). — Nate Taylor

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The early shock: The Raiders have the fifth-fewest factors allowed.

The decision: Actual. Las Vegas has allowed 16.5 factors per sport by means of two weeks. Towards the Chargers, the protection saved the sport inside attain, permitting simply three factors within the second half. Though the Raiders nonetheless have query marks within the secondary, coach Pete Carroll and defensive coordinator Patrick Graham have proven they’ll discover a strategy to get the most effective out of the expertise at hand. — Ryan McFadden

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The early shock: Quentin Johnston‘s manufacturing.

The decision: Actual. Johnston has 150 receiving yards and three touchdowns by means of two video games, main the group in each classes. He’s the primary Chargers participant with three touchdowns by means of L.A.’s first two video games since tight finish Antonio Gates in 2014. Regardless of Johnston’s fluctuating play by means of two seasons, he has remained one in all quarterback Justin Herbert‘s favourite targets. Johnston ought to proceed to be productive this season. — Kris Rhim

NFC EAST

The early shock: 4 speeding touchdowns.

The decision: Actual. Which may not sound spectacular to some of us, however the Cowboys had simply six speeding touchdowns final season. Six. Javonte Williams has three, probably the most by a Dallas operating again by means of two video games since Marion Barber in 2008. Miles Sanders has the fourth. New offensive coordinator Klayton Adams helped design Arizona’s run sport and has introduced some adjustments to how the Cowboys get it carried out on the bottom, notably by getting his linemen on the transfer. Final 12 months, the Cardinals had 18 speeding touchdowns. Good purple zone groups run the ball into the top zone. If the Cowboys generally is a menace on the bottom contained in the opponents’ 20, it would assist Dak Prescott and his move catchers discover some area, too. — Todd Archer

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The early shock: Backside-five speeding assault.

The decision: Actual. The offensive line is not nice at move blocking. There was a perception based mostly on the second half of final season that it could no less than be a greater run-blocking unit. However the Giants have issues on the inside of their offensive line, a principal cause they’re averaging a paltry 79.0 yards on the bottom. They get minimal push. That appears unlikely to magically change, and the operating sport is already trying to find solutions. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was changed by Cam Skattebo as the first ball provider after one week. — Jordan Raanan

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The early shock: A.J. Brown has not been a significant factor within the offense, catching simply six balls for 35 yards.

The decision: Mirage. Brown has had over 1,000 yards receiving in every of his three seasons in Philadelphia and has gone over 1,400 yards twice. He has averaged 15.6 yards per reception over his profession in contrast with simply 5.8 by means of two video games. The Eagles move sport continues to be discovering its approach underneath new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo. It is a run-oriented offense however that hasn’t stopped Brown from being productive. He missed vital time this summer time with a hamstring harm. Assuming his well being continues to development in a optimistic course, he ought to be again to filling up the stat sheet earlier than lengthy. — Tim McManus

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The early shock: Terry McLaurin is on tempo for lower than 700 yards.

The decision: Mirage. McLaurin has topped 1,000 yards in 5 consecutive seasons so there is no cause to consider his manufacturing will not enhance. However the gradual begin was considerably anticipated provided that he missed all of coaching camp (along with OTA and minicamp practices) whereas holding out/in. He is receiving an analogous variety of targets as he did final 12 months (6.88 in 2024; 6.5 in 2025) and he was getting open vs. Inexperienced Bay — however the Packers’ move rush usually negated possibilities. McLaurin continues to be getting open — when he runs a route after lining up huge left (his regular spot), he is averaging 2.53 yards of separation in contrast with 2.63 final 12 months. It is a matter of time for McLaurin. — John Keim

NFC NORTH

The early shock: Chicago’s protection ranks thirty second in factors allowed.

The decision: Actual. And that is the scary half. The Bears’ protection is meant to be the spine of this group whereas Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the offense get established, however Chicago has allowed 73 factors over its previous 5 quarters and let the Lions common 8.8 yards per play in Week 2, the very best fee they allowed in a sport since 1961. Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy coming again to earth after the Vikings scored 21 unanswered factors within the fourth quarter is a foul search for the Bears. What’s worse had been the 52 factors allowed to Detroit, probably the most Chicago has given up in a sport since 2014. — Courtney Cronin

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The early shock: The Lions are tied for the NFL’s most receiving touchdowns.

The decision: Actual. With so many offensive playmakers returning, Lions QB Jared Goff may very properly proceed this development. Goff and Detroit scored 5 touchdowns in the course of the 52-21 Week 2 beatdown versus Chicago — All-Professional WR Amon-Ra St. Brown scored three of these — however Goff will even be throwing to WR Jameson Williams, rookie WR Isaac TeSlaa, TE Sam LaPorta and RB Jahmyr Gibbs this season. Detroit was in a position to set a franchise file by averaging 8.8 yards per play on offense towards the Bears and produced a sport with no less than 500 whole internet yards, 5 passing touchdowns and two speeding touchdowns for the primary time in franchise historical past. — Eric Woodyard

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The early shock: The Packers lead the league in QB pressures.

The decision: Actual. After rating a pedestrian seventeenth within the NFL in quarterback pressures final season, they’re No. 1 within the league with 38 after two weeks, in line with ESPN Analysis. They’re additionally second in sacks. The rationale it may very well be sustainable is straightforward: the arrival of Micah Parsons. On a restricted snap depend, Parsons ranks second within the NFL in particular person pressures with 9. — Rob Demovsky

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The early shock: A tough begin for a revamped offensive line.

The decision: Actual. The Vikings devoted premium property to revamping their offensive line this offseason, signing heart Ryan Kelly and proper guard Will Fries to offers that totaled $106 million whereas drafting left guard Donovan Jackson within the first spherical. However the line has but to gel, partially due to accidents, and it has been a contributor to quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s struggles. Kelly is the one starter who ranks among the many NFL’s prime 60 in move block win fee, and within the run sport, the Vikings rank No. 28 within the league with a mean of 1.91 yards gained earlier than contract. Kelly suffered a concussion in Week 2, and that — together with left sort out Christian Darrisaw‘s ongoing restoration from a 2024 left knee harm, has sophisticated issues. — Kevin Seifert

NFC SOUTH

The early shock: The Falcons have some of the potent move rushes within the league.

The decision: Mirage — to an extent. The Falcons are fourth within the league in quarterback stress fee (46.3%) and fourth in sack fee (10.4%). Their seven sacks, six of which got here towards the Vikings on Sunday night time, make for the third highest whole within the league. Atlanta has been a cellar dweller in attending to the quarterback. Coming into this season, the Falcons had 30 fewer sacks than another group going again to 2019. The 2025 numbers will revert to the imply. However the group’s protection, underneath new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and after a dedication to including expertise within the offseason, is undoubtedly improved. — Marc Raimondi

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The early shock: Xavier Legette‘s horrible begin.

The decision: Actual. The thirty second choose of the 2024 draft had one catch for minus-2 yards Sunday and thru two video games has 4 catches on 15 targets for 8 yards. Coach Dave Canales says he nonetheless believes in Legette, however is there cause to? Legette had solely a 58.3% catch fee final 12 months and labored arduous in the course of the offseason to enhance that. As a substitute, he has gone backward and is at 26.7%. He ought to be in peril of being changed. — David Newton

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The early shock: The Saints protection is tied for second within the league with eight sacks.

The decision: Mirage. Although the Saints had been in a position to generate some sacks within the first two video games, two sacks had been tackles for no acquire when Kyler Murray was on the run and one sack was a results of Mac Jones stumbling and falling final week. In line with TruMedia, the Saints rank twenty eighth in move rush win fee and thirtieth in pressures. Though issues may change when Chase Younger returns from harm, New Orleans possible will not keep on the prime of the league in that statistic. — Katherine Terrell

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The early shock: The Bucs’ 2-0 scorching begin.

The decision: Actual. That is the third straight 12 months the Bucs have began 2-0 underneath Todd Bowles, one thing no different group has carried out since 2023. The problem has been the midseason lulls following their scorching begins. In 2024, the Bucs began 3-1 after which proceeded to drop 5 of six video games earlier than successful six of seven ultimately. In 2023, they began 3-1, dropped six of seven after which received 5 of six. Final 12 months, their dropping coincided with the lack of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. In 2025, they’ve began the season 2-0 with out Godwin, Jalen McMillan and All-Professional left sort out Tristan Wirfs, and now they’ve misplaced Calijah Kancey for the 12 months. Assuming they keep wholesome in different place teams, their play ought to elevate by midseason — not decline. — Jenna Laine

NFC WEST

The early shock: RB James Conner is off to a gradual begin.

The decision: Mirage. The 30-year-old Conner is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons however has rushed for simply 73 yards this season — the thirty ninth most this season. It places him on tempo for 620.5 yards, which might be his fewest since 2019. He is certain to interrupt out sooner or later, however the Cardinals’ backup operating again, Trey Benson, has been trying spectacular within the restricted snaps he has acquired to date. Conner is a tough, downfield runner with game-breaking means. It is only a matter of time earlier than he finds his rhythm and will get his stats on top of things. — Josh Weinfuss

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The early shock: OLB Byron Younger leads the Rams in sacks.

The decision: Actual. Younger, a 2023 third-round choose, has a team-leading three sacks in two video games. The Rams have a superb defensive entrance that additionally contains Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Jared Verse, however Younger has been a standout by means of two video games. Rams head coach Sean McVay mentioned he thought Younger was “excellent” towards the Titans, saying, “I believed he took his sport to the following stage.” Younger’s three sacks tie him for fourth within the league this season. — Sarah Barshop

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The early shock: The Niners are once more center of the pack in scoring touchdowns within the purple zone.

The decision: Mirage. By two video games, San Francisco has scored a landing on 57.1% of its journeys to the purple zone, tied for seventeenth within the NFL. That is precisely according to the 57.1% the 49ers posted for all of final season, which ranked 14th. However there’s cause to consider that quantity will enhance because the 12 months goes on. Whereas the 49ers can by no means depend on being “totally” wholesome, they need to get tight finish George Kittle (hamstring) and receiver Brandon Aiyuk (knee) again sooner or later to enrich operating again Christian McCaffrey. Having even two of these three ought to put San Francisco in place to transform extra lengthy drives into touchdowns because the season goes on. — Nick Wagoner

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The early shock: Zach Charbonnet is enjoying greater than Kenneth Walker III.

The decision: Actual. This may shock solely those that weren’t taking note of the hints that Charbonnet was poised for an elevated position this season. By two video games, he has outsnapped Walker 66 to 44. Nevertheless, they every have 27 touches, and Walker has been the extra productive of the 2, with 142 yards and a landing in contrast with Charbonnet’s 57 yards and one rating. Charbonnet is superb in move safety and is as dependable as they arrive, so anticipate him to proceed to play extensively even when Walker continues to outproduce him. — Brady Henderson