Revisiting 2025 preseason daring predictions for 32 NFL groups
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Seth Walder
A part of the predictions sport is seeing how our forecasts fare. It is easy to make a prediction, however we additionally have to test in on them.
Within the preseason, I made one daring prediction for each crew as a part of our preview of the 2025 season. These had been large swings — issues I believed might occur however would every be an upset. And 5 weeks into the season, we have realized lots.
So it is time to revisit these predictions and learn the way we’re doing. Which of them are on observe? Which might nonetheless occur? And which had been to this point off that we’d as effectively make a brand new one? In some circumstances, 5 weeks means the whole lot has modified. In others, not a lot. In reality … one preseason prediction already hit!
Let’s dive in now and see the place we stand for all 32 groups.
Bounce to a crew:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Nailed it
Authentic prediction: QB Jaxson Dart will make his first begin no later than Week 5.
Why we nailed it: Dart began in Week 4 after a sluggish begin from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson that led to an 0-3 starting of the season for the Giants. The rookie received in his debut towards the Chargers, although he struggled this previous Sunday with two interceptions and a 50.2 Whole QBR (ninth worst in Week 5) in a loss to the Saints.
Heading in the right direction
Authentic prediction: TE Dalton Kincaid will file no less than 900 receiving yards.
Why it is on the right track: Kincaid is on tempo for 976 yards (287 by means of 5 video games). There’s nonetheless a protracted method to go, significantly as a result of Kincaid has run routes on solely 57% of the Payments’ dropbacks to this point this season, however he is catching the whole lot. Kincaid is sporting a plus-15% catch fee over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, better of all tight ends with no less than 20 targets.
Authentic prediction: The Panthers will file the fewest sacks within the league.
Why it is on the right track: They’ve sacked opponents simply 5 instances, tied with the Bears for the fewest within the league — however Chicago has performed solely 4 video games with its Week 5 bye. Carolina ranks twenty ninth in go rush win fee and isn’t anticipated to be forward in lots of video games because the sixth-worst crew in ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index. That issues as a result of sacks happen extra typically when a crew is profitable.
Authentic prediction: The Bears will end within the prime six in go block win fee.
Why it is on the right track: Chicago ranks fourth with a 69% go block win fee. There are two large causes for the turnaround:
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The Joe Thuney addition has been enormous, with the previous Chiefs guard rating third in PBWR at his place.
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Darnell Wright has proven vital enchancment, rating twelfth amongst tackles with a 92% PBWR — up from forty fourth throughout his disappointing 2024 marketing campaign (88%).
The Bears going from a bottom-three play-action fee crew (19%) to above common (27%) helps, too.
Authentic prediction: The Bengals will miss the playoffs … once more.
Why it is on the right track: Joe Burrow suffered a turf toe damage that required surgical procedure, knocking him out of motion for no less than three months. The Bengals are 0-3 since, having misplaced every sport by no less than 13 factors. Backup quarterback Jake Browning has performed poorly in Burrow’s stead, registering a QBR of 35.3. Due to that, the Bengals have solely a 9.2% probability to make the playoffs. I used to be fairly bullish on Browning on the time of Burrow’s damage, but it surely hasn’t labored out, and the Bengals acquired Joe Flacco from the Browns on Tuesday.
Authentic prediction: WR Puka Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards.
Why it is on the right track: He is main the league with 588 yards, 54 forward of Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nacua has been outrageous, rating first in goal fee (39.1%) amongst broad receivers with no less than 100 routes run, second in yards per route (3.7), second in accomplished air yards per route (2.4), first in yards after catch (208) and first in receptions over expectation, per Subsequent Gen Stats (8.4). Nacua wants each himself and quarterback Matthew Stafford to remain wholesome, however he is off to a heck of a begin.
Authentic prediction: Working again Jordan Mason will file no less than 1,100 speeding yards.
Why it is on the right track: Mason is on tempo for 1,098, so forgive me for rounding up. Exterior of two fumbles, Mason has been what the Vikings hoped for once they traded for him: an efficient runner who might pair with veteran Aaron Jones Sr.’s receiving capacity (although Jones has missed the previous few video games due to a hamstring damage). Mason is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has 71 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, the eighth most amongst working backs. The Vikings’ offense has not been as prolific as they hoped, however getting it again to common effectivity would assist Mason going ahead.
Authentic prediction: Defensive sort out Moro Ojomo — who entered the season with zero profession sacks — will file no less than 5 sacks and end within the prime 10 in go rush win fee.
Why it is on the right track: Ojomo has two sacks and is tied for tenth amongst defensive tackles with a 13% go rush win fee. The humorous half was that this prediction was conceived partially out of perception that the Eagles’ scenario fueled Milton Williams‘ numbers and that his substitute can be put in an amazing spot. And whereas enjoying defensive sort out subsequent to Jalen Carter may put gamers in favorable conditions, Williams is prospering outdoors that function in New England, too.
Authentic prediction: Defensive sort out Derrick Harmon will lead rookie defensive tackles in sacks.
Why it is on the right track: Contemplating that Harmon missed the primary two video games of the season with a sprained MCL, I am shocked that is nonetheless in vary. However Harmon’s one sack places him in a multiperson tie for the rookie defensive sort out sack lead with Jamaree Caldwell and Omarr Norman-Lott. Harmon’s 6% go rush win fee and 9% stress fee do not have me overly optimistic, however then once more, he is enjoying on a very good line of defense. Maybe that is sufficient to beat the competitors.
Authentic prediction: Edge rusher Bryce Huff will file no less than 9 sacks.
Why it is on the right track: Huff is again. After one 12 months misplaced within the Philadelphia wilderness, Huff has reemerged in San Francisco enjoying like his previous self for his previous coach, Robert Saleh. Huff has three sacks this season, placing him on tempo for greater than 10. Huff’s 19% go rush win fee ranks twentieth amongst edge rushers. Whereas Nick Bosa‘s season-ending torn ACL makes it much less probably for Huff’s sack fee to remain tremendous excessive, it might ultimately imply extra enjoying time and extra alternatives to get there.
1:19
McAfee wonders if Bucs are a ‘crew of future’
Pat McAfee and A.J. Hawk focus on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ electrical win over the Seahawks.
Nonetheless an opportunity …
Authentic prediction: Nickel cornerback Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per protection snap allowed.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: The excellent news? Williams ranks second on this stat amongst slot defenders with no less than 50 protection snaps (0.4, behind solely the Chargers’ Derwin James Jr.). The unhealthy information? A knee damage in Week 2 landed Williams on the IR. Nonetheless, it is inside the realm of chance that he might return to motion and lead the class, particularly after his robust begin.
Authentic prediction: Working again Keaton Mitchell can have no less than 4 video games with 20-plus fantasy factors.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: I do know it appears silly to cling to this prediction contemplating Mitchell was inactive for the Ravens’ first 4 video games, however I’m. Mitchell has been inactive behind Derrick Henry, pass-catching possibility Justice Hill and kick returner Rasheen Ali. But when Henry had been to get damage, I believe Mitchell can be the brand new prime again on early downs.
I had imagined that he would hit this prediction by working in additional with Henry and breaking some lengthy runs — referencing his 201 rush yards over expectation on 47 carries in 2023, in line with NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — and I suppose that is nonetheless doable. And the upside Mitchell presents is why I’m (maybe stubbornly) persevering with to carry on to him in a few fantasy leagues.
Authentic prediction: The Browns will commerce guards Joel Bitonio or Wyatt Teller in-season.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: The commerce deadline hasn’t occurred but! And Cleveland has been, as anticipated, a disappointment and a noncontender. Each gamers are veterans within the closing 12 months of their contracts, and the crew has Teven Jenkins as a succesful inside substitute. It might make sense to commerce no less than one in all Bitonio or Teller.
Authentic prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin will file a number of kick returns for touchdowns this season.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: He hasn’t scored a kick return for a landing but, however returns are means up in 2025 due to a change within the touchback rule. Because of this, Turpin has 16 kick returns already after recording 27 all of final season. And he has recorded an above-average 91 return yards over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. This might nonetheless occur.
Authentic prediction: CB Riley Moss will file no less than 5 interceptions in a breakout third season.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: This can be a actual lengthy shot contemplating Moss would not have a choose but this season and his 1.3 yards per protection snap, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, is larger than common for an outdoor nook. However there’s one quantity that has me holding out some hope: No cornerback within the NFL has been thrown at greater than Moss (40 targets). These additional targets are additional probabilities at picks. Nonetheless, I doubt this comes by means of.
Authentic prediction: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will file no less than 100 go rush wins, one thing that has occurred solely twice because the metric was created in 2017.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: Hutchinson is off to a pleasant begin with 5 sacks by means of 5 video games, however he is nonetheless effectively off the 100-win tempo. He has 19 go rush wins to this point, placing him on observe to succeed in 65. That will be a pleasant whole, however not historic.
So why nonetheless an opportunity? Hutchinson took a few video games to get going — which is comprehensible, contemplating he was returning after the season-ending damaged leg he suffered a 12 months in the past — and has proven prior to now that he is able to placing up enormous numbers in streaks (like when he recorded 36 go rush wins by means of 5 video games final season).
Authentic prediction: Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper can be a first- or second-team All-Professional.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: He has posted strong numbers, however not fairly like what he did in a semi-small pattern final season. His 37% run cease win fee is a bit above common for an off-ball linebacker however nowhere close to his 46% from a 12 months in the past. Cooper’s 0.9 yards per protection snap is common for a linebacker, and his 0.5 sacks is nothing to put in writing dwelling about. Nevertheless it’s a protracted season, and he is a promising younger participant. There’s nonetheless time.
Authentic prediction: The Chiefs can have no less than 12 performs that go for 40-plus yards within the common season.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: Kansas Metropolis has recorded two such performs this season, so that is nonetheless a protracted shot. Nonetheless, that is midway to the season whole from a 12 months in the past. Plus, we’ll see whether or not the return of broad receiver Rashee Rice following his six-game suspension opens up extra performs downfield.
Authentic prediction: Offensive sort out Joe Alt will win Protector of the Yr.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: I used to be feeling fairly nice about this name earlier than Alt suffered a excessive proper ankle sprain. Alt, who moved to left sort out following Rashawn Slater‘s season-ending ruptured patellar tendon, ranks fifth amongst tackles in go block win fee (95.3%) and sixth in run block win fee (82.0%). That is an awfully good mixture.
The issue is the damage. If Alt misses one other sport, that will be two video games utterly missed plus most of a 3rd. It is nonetheless possible to win an award after lacking a sport or two, but it surely turns into extra of a protracted shot with every further sport missed. Hopefully — for Alt, the Chargers and this prediction — he is again on the sector quickly.
Authentic prediction: WR Chris Olave can be a top-15 broad receiver in whole fantasy factors.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: He is not that far off. Olave ranks twenty third amongst broad receivers in fantasy factors with 61.4. However I believe there’s good motive to consider he’ll transfer up the ranks because the season continues. Olave ranks second in anticipated fantasy factors, in line with ESPN’s Mike Clay.
Authentic prediction: The Jets will lead the league in run fee over expectation.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: They’ve an 8% run fee over expectation, which ranks fifth greatest within the NFL. That is effectively inside placing distance of the lead. (The Saints are at 10%.) And I do not see any motive that ought to change since Justin Fields continues to be at quarterback. Keep in mind, that is run fee over expectation we’re , so the Jets can nonetheless lead the class even when they proceed to fall behind in video games.
Authentic prediction: Edge rusher Yaya Diaby will file double-digit sacks in a breakout season.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: With just one Diaby sack this season, I really feel like I ought to most likely throw this one out. However … I am holding powerful with my optimism, as he has a 20% go rush win fee at edge (tied for seventeenth greatest) and an electrical get-off. He crosses the road of scrimmage in 0.75 seconds on common, fifth greatest amongst all gamers with no less than 80 go rushes. I nonetheless assume Diaby has an opportunity in Todd Bowles’ blitz-happy protection.
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Herm Edwards: Travis Hunter would play 90% on protection for me
Herm Edwards particulars why he would play Travis Hunter totally on protection and situationally on offense.
Authentic prediction: The Commanders will end under .500.
Why there’s nonetheless an opportunity: The Commanders are 3-2, however that features two video games (and one loss) with out Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Daniels has a forty five.4 QBR to this point, a disappointment after his rookie season. However he has performed solely three video games, and the protection has been higher than I anticipated — sixteenth in EPA per play (0.03) and a stunning sixth in go rush win fee (45.4%). I believe it is unlikely the Commanders will end sub-.500 now, but it surely’s the NFL. An 8-9 or 7-10 season is effectively inside the playing cards.
Throw it out, begin over
Authentic prediction: Middle Ryan Neuzil will rank within the prime 5 in run block win fee.
Why we’re throwing it out: Neuzil ranks twenty fourth in run block win fee (63.5%), greater than 10 share factors outdoors the highest 5. I do not assume he’d have the ability to make up that hole.
New daring prediction: RB Bijan Robinson will lead all working backs in rush yards over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, by the tip of the common season. Is it actually daring to name for an amazing working again to be nice? Possibly not. However take into account that Robinson is greater than 100 speeding yards over expectation behind the present chief (improbably, the Cowboys’ Javonte Williams at 133) with solely 29 on the season. Robinson completed seventh within the class final season with 199.
Authentic prediction: Cornerback Kamari Lassiter will make the Professional Bowl.
Why we’re throwing it out: Lassiter hasn’t been unhealthy or something. It is simply arduous to make it to the Professional Bowl, and his numbers up to now have not advised there’s going to be the required second-year breakout. Lassiter’s 1.2 yards per protection snap and 17% goal fee are each somewhat larger than common for an outdoor cornerback, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.
New daring prediction: Woody Marks can be a top-20 fantasy working again from Week 6 on. That may not have appeared so daring per week in the past, however after Marks managed 24 yards on seven carries with zero receptions in Week 5, I am positive the consensus has cooled on him. Nonetheless, Marks has registered 21 rush yards over expectation this season, and I am assuming that Nick Chubb‘s function will slowly shrink because the season progresses, given his age and put on and tear.
Authentic prediction: WR Adonai Mitchell will file no less than 700 receiving yards.
Why we’re throwing it out: Mitchell is on tempo for 465 receiving yards regardless of a sizzling begin from the Colts’ offense. He additionally noticed his function severely restricted in Week 5 after fumbling the ball earlier than crossing the objective line in Week 4.
New daring prediction: CB Charvarius Ward can be named a first- or second-team All-Professional. Ward is off to a superb begin to his first season in Indianapolis after leaving the 49ers this offseason and signing a three-year deal with the Colts. He has recorded 0.7 yards per protection snap, which is sixth greatest amongst outdoors corners with no less than 100 protection snaps in 2025.
Authentic prediction: The share of snaps Travis Hunter performs will whole no less than 145% if we add offense and protection.
Why we’re throwing it out: Hunter has performed a mixed 98% of snaps up to now at broad receiver and cornerback. On condition that the outcomes have been somewhat disappointing up to now, it is arduous to think about that growing to wherever close to the benchmark I set.
New daring prediction: OT Anton Harrison will attain the Professional Bowl. The 2023 first-round choose is having a breakout season, with a 92% go block win fee that ranks thirteenth amongst all tackles. It is a large step up from the place he was final season (83%, sixtieth).
Authentic prediction: Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly can be an NFL head coach in 2026. Why we’re throwing it out: It isn’t inconceivable, however the concept right here was that the Raiders had been going to have sufficient offensive success to throw Kelly’s identify again into consideration. That definitely hasn’t been the case, because the Raiders rank twenty ninth in EPA per play on offense, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. New daring prediction: WR Tre Tucker will file 900 or extra receiving yards. He has had an amazing begin to the season, with a powerful 2.2 yards per route run. The Raiders additionally could be behind in fairly just a few contests all through the remainder of the season, resulting in an increasing number of downfield pictures to Tucker. Authentic prediction: WR Tyreek Hill can be traded. Why we’re throwing it out: There was most likely a good probability of this taking place … however then Hill dislocated his knee towards the Jets in Week 4 and can miss the remainder of this season. He is not getting traded now. New daring prediction: Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips can be traded. Let’s stick to the identical theme right here as a result of the thesis is comparable: The Dolphins should be serious about the longer term on the commerce deadline. Phillips is within the closing 12 months of his contract, and Miami is not in that nice of a cap scenario — presently $10 million over the 2026 cap, per OverTheCap.com. It might make sense for the Dolphins to deal Phillips to a contender in change for draft capital. Bradley Chubb may very well be a candidate right here, too, however Phillips will garner a stronger return. Authentic prediction: Free agent addition DT Milton Williams will end outdoors the highest 10 in go rush win fee and have fewer than 5 sacks. Why we’re throwing it out: I am unsure I might have been extra flawed. Williams has utterly silenced those that questioned his signing — myself very a lot included. He has 2.5 sacks, and his 17% go rush win fee ranks third at defensive sort out. New daring prediction: Williams can be a first-team All-Professional. Let’s flip this a full 180 levels, we could? First crew is hard to tug off, in fact, however Williams might discover his means there if he retains up his robust numbers. Authentic prediction: Linebacker Ernest Jones IV will lead off-ball linebackers in pressures. Why we’re throwing it out: Jones has only one stress this season, and he is speeding the passer on solely 8% of opponent dropbacks. I do not assume this one’s taking place. New daring prediction: Rookie WR Tory Horton will file a number of video games with 100 or extra yards this season. He hasn’t exceeded 40 yards in a sport this season, however there are good indicators equivalent to his 2.4 yards per route run versus man protection. Plus, Horton runs a excessive fee of vertical routes, which implies he is extra more likely to be a boom-or-bust participant by way of manufacturing. I am banking on a few booms. Authentic prediction: QB Cam Ward can have below a 5% sack fee. Why we’re throwing it out: Ward has a ten% sack fee, third worst amongst QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. It would not look as if that is going to enhance a lot the remainder of the season. New daring prediction: DT Jeffery Simmons can be a first-team All-Professional for the primary time in his profession. I’ve now handed out each first-team All-Execs for defensive tackles right here (see my new Patriots prediction), so we’re going for the exacta. Simmons has 3.5 sacks already and leads all defensive tackles with a 22% go rush win fee. To place up these numbers on a crew that has continuously been behind is spectacular.
