NFL Soccer Energy Index: 2025 projections, Tremendous Bowl probabilities

The Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Tremendous Bowl LX — however simply barely, with a cluster of groups near the reigning champs when it comes to potential and likelihood to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. That is in response to ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) — our soccer rankings and projection mannequin — which launched Wednesday for the 2025 season.

The Eagles have a 12% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl in response to the mannequin, the bottom likelihood the preseason favourite has needed to win all of it for the reason that mannequin started outputting preseason projections in 2015.

Within the preseason, FPI’s general predictive rankings are based totally on win totals from the betting market together with every crew’s schedule — together with elements such because the distinction between a crew’s beginning and backup quarterback and a particular groups ranking that includes particular kickers. We use these rankings to simulate the season 1000’s of instances, with the outcomes forming our projections.

Scores evolve as we study extra about every crew primarily based on its efficiency on offense, protection and particular groups — accounting for opponent — together with quarterback efficiency and modifications. Sport predictions are additionally affected by home-field benefit and relaxation differentials. Let’s dive into our 2025 forecast and our greatest takeaways.

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Prime groups | Tremendous Bowl | NFC North
NFC West | AFC East | AFC North
Who’s final? | No. 1 choose

Eagles high the NFL’s elite group

The NFL’s 2025 oligarchy consists of a transparent high tier: the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions and Payments. These groups are separated by at most a single level in FPI ranking, that means none of them can be favored by greater than a single level over one other on a impartial subject. However there is a drastic, 1.8-point drop-off between the No. 5-ranked Payments and the No. 6-ranked Commanders.

First take a look at NFL FPI rankings for the 2025 season! pic.twitter.com/k6s2fg40X7

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) Might 27, 2025

The frequent theme between the highest 5 groups? Offensive power. That is proper, the “protection wins championships” cliché is not mirrored right here. Offense is extra steady from recreation to recreation and season to season, so groups with the most effective previous quarterback and offensive manufacturing usually tend to repeat that success. That is essential as a result of the purpose of the FPI is to look forward, not again. It is no coincidence that the highest 5 groups even have the 5 greatest offenses in response to the FPI, albeit in a distinct order.

Nevertheless it’s not all offense — the defending champion Eagles are oh-so-slightly within the general lead as a result of additionally they have the most effective protection. With linebacker Zack Baun again to anchor the center and ascending younger expertise reminiscent of defensive deal with Jalen Carter and cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philly’s protection units it aside.

All 5 groups within the high tier have a minimum of an 8% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl, and there’s a 50% likelihood that the Tremendous Bowl winner will likely be a type of 5 groups. No different crew has higher than a 5% likelihood to win all of it.

May we see an Eagles-Chiefs repeat within the Tremendous Bowl?

Two of the previous three Tremendous Bowls have been between Kansas Metropolis and Philadelphia. Will it’s three of 4? The 4.2% likelihood of a Tremendous Bowl LIX repeat is the best of any mixture of groups in our Tremendous Bowl matchup projections, barely besting the three.6% probabilities of Ravens-Eagles and Payments-Eagles matchups. Prime combos are listed beneath and rounded to the closest entire quantity.

When trying on the high 10 more than likely Tremendous Bowl combos, a number of completely different NFC groups seem on the listing. The Eagles and Lions present up essentially the most, however the Commanders, Rams and 49ers every appeared in one of the vital probably combos. The AFC aspect of the matchups was dominated by three groups — the Chiefs, Payments and Ravens.

Who’s the favourite within the loaded NFC North?

It isn’t a giant shock, however each crew within the NFC North ranks within the high half of the FPI rankings. Detroit leads the way in which at No. 4, adopted by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).

If there’s a curveball, it is that Minnesota ranks solely fifteenth after going 14-3 in 2024. However the Vikings relied on their protection — which ranked third in EPA per play — final season whereas rating a mediocre fifteenth on offense. And although Brian Flores stays as defensive coordinator, defensive success is tough to duplicate.

Plus, second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is an unknown after lacking his rookie season with a torn meniscus in his proper knee. Whereas he may possess extra upside than final yr’s starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy’s draw back is sort of definitely decrease. Subsequently, the FPI provides Minnesota solely a 19% likelihood to win the division and a 43% likelihood to achieve the playoffs.

In the meantime, the Bears moved in the wrong way. After Chicago completed twenty fourth in complete effectivity (EPA per play adjusted for rubbish time) final season, the FPI sees it as a minimally above-average crew coming into 2025. The explanations for optimism are apparent. The Bears introduced in new coach Ben Johnson and added important expertise to their offensive line, and quarterback Caleb Williams now has a season of NFL expertise — even when that have was shaky.

So, who comes out forward? The Lions paved the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. However all of them have an opportunity, as even the Bears are at 15%.

Can the 49ers bounce again and win the NFC West?

FPI narrowly has the Rams as the most effective crew within the NFC West. However the favourite to win the division? That will (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams’ 34%.

Why the discrepancy? Power of schedule. No crew enters 2025 with a neater slate than the 49ers, who not solely get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the remainder of their division, but in addition the Giants, Browns and Bears on account of ending final within the division in 2024. Compared, the Rams should face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as a part of their first-place schedule.

That is sufficient to give San Francisco the sting over Los Angeles within the projections. It additionally signifies the FPI’s perception within the 49ers bouncing again after a brutally disappointing 6-11 marketing campaign. A giant a part of that religion is the betting market believing that the 49ers have been hampered by accidents to key gamers final season — together with vast receiver Brandon Aiyuk, working again Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams — and that they need to be harmful if wholesome.

Can any of the opposite AFC East groups problem the Payments?

They might, however no particular person crew is especially probably to take action. Buffalo is the one AFC East crew with a optimistic FPI ranking and can be thought-about greater than a four-point favourite over every of the opposite three on a impartial subject. And the Payments have a 65% likelihood to win their division — the best of any crew within the NFL by a hefty margin.

After all, that leaves greater than a 1-in-3 likelihood that another person will win the AFC East. That is primarily because of the uncertainty of soccer — the FPI is likely to be overrating the Payments or underrating another person, or one of many different groups might luck into the division title regardless of not being nearly as good as Buffalo general.

However that variance will all the time be there. Within the meantime, the Payments are once more in nearly as good a place because it will get to win their division.

Will the Bengals return to the playoffs?

Most likely! Cincinnati’s 2024 marketing campaign disappointingly ended within the common season regardless of quarterback Joe Burrow rating third in QBR, the most effective efficiency of his profession. However protection held the Bengals again, as they ranked twenty third in EPA allowed per play and significantly struggled towards the run, rating thirtieth in EPA in defending dashing performs.

However the lack of year-to-year continuity that occurs with good defenses additionally occurs with weaker items. Cincinnati changed defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo with Al Golden this offseason, which will increase the FPI’s uncertainty on that aspect of the ball. Finally, the mannequin forecasts the Bengals to have a mean protection, which strikes them to No. 7 within the general rankings.

The Ravens are by far the more than likely AFC North champion at 54%, and the Bengals are subsequent at 29%. However Cincinnati has a 60% likelihood to achieve the playoffs. That makes it the fourth-most-likely playoff crew within the AFC after lacking the postseason the previous two seasons.

Who ranks final?

The FPI’s Thirty second-ranked crew will not be the Titans, Browns or Giants. It is the Saints, who discover themselves on the backside of the rankings after the sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derek Carr. His retirement forces New Orleans to rely on both second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year participant Spencer Rattler at quarterback, barring one other transfer. All rookie quarterbacks are seen as a damaging within the FPI, however a second-rounder like Shough — who the mannequin presumes will begin — will likely be thought-about a bit worse than Cameron Ward, whom Tennessee chosen with the No. 1 choose.

The excellent news for the Saints is that the FPI does not assume a lot of the NFC South. Solely the Buccaneers have a optimistic FPI ranking (they rank 14th). The Falcons and Panthers rank twenty sixth and twenty eighth, respectively. Partially as a result of the division is so weak, all 4 NFC South groups rank within the backside six in power of schedule, which boosts every of their win projections. In consequence, the Saints have solely the fourth-best likelihood on the No. 1 choose within the 2026 draft regardless of their last-place general FPI rating.

Cleveland on the clock?

The Browns are the more than likely crew to finish the season holding the No. 1 choose within the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. A lot of that is because of a quarterback room comprising Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.

The Giants are rated barely above the Browns within the FPI and have the second-highest likelihood to earn the No. 1 choose at 12%, on account of going through the league’s most troublesome schedule. The Titans, Saints and Jets observe with 11%, 10% and 10% probabilities, respectively.